Xi Jinping out before 2027?

CalibrationResearch on political prediction markets shows prices systematically understate the probability of favorites and overstate longshots — but that bias correction runs the wrong direction here, meaning a deep longshot like this is more likely overpriced than underpriced. Polymarket political contracts show the weakest outcome-correctness of major platforms (67% per Clinton & Huang 2025), meaning the market price is less reliable as a probability estimate here than on competing venues — further reason to be skeptical that the current price reflects true odds.

RisksThe two related markets create a correlation trap: traders holding Yes positions across multiple Xi removal contracts are stacking correlated exposure to the same near-zero probability event, amplifying drawdown risk if they're sizing each position independently. Thin liquidity despite headline volume (liquidity scored 10/100) means any attempt to exit a meaningful position near resolution — especially in a contested or ambiguous scenario — could result in severe slippage against you.