Question 1

Has any recent official government statement on UAPs or non-human technology come close enough to the 'definitively states' threshold that a future similar statement would clearly resolve Yes — or is the bar genuinely unclear?

Accepted Answer

Has any recent official government statement on UAPs or non-human technology come close enough to the 'definitively states' threshold that a future similar statement would clearly resolve Yes — or is the bar genuinely unclear?

Question 2

If an ambiguous statement triggers a resolution dispute and the market freezes near the deadline, what is your exit plan given that effective liquidity may be far thinner than the headline volume suggests?

Accepted Answer

If an ambiguous statement triggers a resolution dispute and the market freezes near the deadline, what is your exit plan given that effective liquidity may be far thinner than the headline volume suggests?

Question 3

Are you exposed to this market on both Polymarket and Kalshi simultaneously, and have you stress-tested what happens to your combined position if the two platforms resolve differently on a contested statement?

Accepted Answer

Are you exposed to this market on both Polymarket and Kalshi simultaneously, and have you stress-tested what happens to your combined position if the two platforms resolve differently on a contested statement?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Questions worth asking