Markets
Price History
Structural Analysis
AI-generatedThis market carries a `kalshi_flb_warning` flag, meaning the longshot side is likely overpriced due to retail traders systematically overpaying for low-probability outcomes — a cognitive bias that persists as long as retail dominates the order book. Research on Kalshi specifically shows large-trade calibration is even more distorted than single-contract trades, so if you're seeing big limit orders propping up the Yes side, that amplifies the mispricing toward No. The edge here is almost certainly on the No side, where the market is structurally underpriced relative to true probability.
ResolutionThe word 'definitively' is doing enormous work in this resolution criteria — a presidential tweet, an agency press release framed as speculative, or a leaked document won't cut it, and Kalshi's resolution team will likely demand an unambiguous, on-the-record statement from the named officials. The risk isn't just whether aliens get confirmed; it's that even a credible partial disclosure gets ruled insufficient, meaning Yes bettors face a higher bar than the resolution language superficially suggests.