Polymarketother

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

2 outcomes

54%Republican Party

Trade →

ResolvesNov 3, 2026172d 21h

RiskLow

Price History

Risk Profile

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$1,096,900, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=1.33%/day, AC=-0.01, 31 points

This contract has low resolution risk due to clear, objective criteria tied to official U.S. Senate election results and certification. The fallback mechanism (Majority Leader selection) provides a definitive tiebreaker if initial results are ambiguous, and the reliance on federal/state election authority certification ensures resolution is grounded in authoritative official determinations rather than subjective interpretation.

Platform default: polymarket

174d to resolution, volume stable

Order Book

Top Holders

Related Contracts

CorrelatedPredictit59¢

Which party will control the Senate after the 2026 election? — Republican

These are essentially identical contracts asking whether Republicans control the Senate after 2026, just on different platforms.

CausalPredictit3¢

How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the 2026 midterms? — 54

If GOP controls Senate after 2026 midterms (B), they likely hold 54+ seats. Contract A specifies exactly 54 seats, which is a subset of B's YES resolution. Causal relationship with logical link.

CausalPredictit10¢

How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the 2026 midterms? — 52

GOP controlling 52 Senate seats is a specific outcome of the broader question of Republican Senate control. The first contract is more specific than the second.

CausalPredictit2¢

How many Senate seats will the GOP control after the 2026 midterms? — 56

GOP controlling 56+ Senate seats directly implies controlling the Senate majority. Senate control is determined by the distribution of seats won.

Anti-correlatedPolymarket79¢

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

These are logical complements—if Democrats control the Senate, Republicans likely do not, and vice versa. However, questions are asymmetric (House vs Senate), so correlation is not perfect.

All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency. If the ou...

Polymarket

54¢

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Poly

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 54¢