Which party will win the House in 2026?

CalibrationResearch on long-horizon political contracts finds that prices systematically compress toward 50% the further out you are from resolution — the market is essentially too uncertain, understating the true edge of whichever side has a real structural advantage. As resolution approaches, expect the price to drift away from 50% toward the true probability, so entering a position on the favorite early — before this compression unwinds — is where the structural edge lives, not chasing it near resolution.

RisksThis market is highly correlated with the Senate control market on the same platform, meaning traders who hold positions in both are running concentrated political regime exposure — a macro shock that moves one will move both, and your effective position size is larger than it looks. Volume here is modest relative to major political markets, which means a few large informed traders can move prices significantly, and Polymarket's manipulation risk score reflects that thin books are vulnerable to strategic price pressure in the final weeks before resolution.