vol=$454,597, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
σ=76.60%/day, AC=-0.13, 22 points
The contract has moderate resolution risk due to several interpretive challenges: defining what qualifies as a 'diplomatic meeting' (excluding brief greetings requires subjective judgment), determining official capacity and government authorization status, and establishing whether media reporting constitutes sufficient public acknowledgment when governments remain silent. Additionally, the geographic classification relies on external US State Department definitions that could shift, and verifying the 'first' qualifying session may be ambiguous if multiple meetings occur simultaneously in different locations.
Platform default: polymarket
76d to resolution, volume stable
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who ...
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