vol=$1,886,999, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
σ=58.47%/day, AC=0.13, 31 points
The contract has moderate resolution risk due to several interpretive challenges: determining what constitutes a 'deliberate meeting' versus 'brief greetings' requires subjective judgment, defining 'official capacity' and 'authorized to engage in negotiation' may be disputed, and the requirement for 'public acknowledgment or consensus of credible media' could face disagreement about what qualifies as credible sources. However, the core event (whether a meeting occurred and its location) is objective and verifiable, and the detailed criteria and regional classifications provide clear guidance for most scenarios.
Platform default: polymarket
12d to resolution, volume rising
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who ...