vol=$1,470,858, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
σ=123.40%/day, AC=0.01, 31 points
The contract has a clear factual outcome (meeting location) that can be objectively verified through government statements and credible media reporting. However, moderate ambiguity exists around defining what qualifies as a 'diplomatic meeting' (versus informal talks or chance encounters) and the threshold for 'deliberate' negotiations, which could spark disputes if a meeting occurs in ambiguous circumstances. The reliance on 'consensus of credible media' for verification also introduces some subjective interpretation risk.
Platform default: polymarket
12d to resolution, volume rising
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who ...