MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Raw gap2¢
Fee-adjusted edge-2¢
39
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
35
Moderate volume — adequate liquidity for most positions
31
Price strongly directional — lower volatility expected
40
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
30
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
75
Resolves in ~6d — short horizon, high time-decay risk
Near-term resolution
Order Book
Top Holders
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
This market will resolve to the contestant who wins Survivor season 50. If Survivor season 50 concludes without a winner being declared, or if Survivor season 50 has otherwise not concluded by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie, this market will reso...
Cross-Platform: Aubry Bracco
Polymarket91¢
Kalshi85¢
Spread7¢
+2.6% fee-adjusted edge
Poly
Kalshi
0%25%50%75%100%
Poly: 91¢
Kalshi: 85¢
Calibration Edge · Pro
Pro subscribers see the historical edge (in percentage points) and an interpretation grounded in Le (2026) recalibration data. Upgrade to $9/mo to unlock.