MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Raw gap2¢
Fee-adjusted edge-2¢
21
Low Risk5-dimension assessment
10
vol=$1,854,536, spread=0.0¢, OI=1100544
10
σ=0.00%/day, AC=0.00, 31 points
15
This contract has very clear binary resolution criteria with an unambiguous oracle: official Survivor Season 50 winner announcement. The show has a well-established finale format with a definitive winner declaration, making this highly verifiable. The resolution criteria thoughtfully address edge cases (joint winners, disqualifications, title stripping) with specific rules that minimize interpretive disputes.
35
Platform default: kalshi
60
239d to resolution, volume stable
Order Book
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Kalshi
If Aubry Bracco is officially declared the winner of Survivor Season 50 before Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The winner must be officially announced in the finale or via official channels immediately following. Multiple joint winners each resolve to Yes with split payouts ($1 divid...
Cross-Platform: Aubry Bracco
Polymarket91¢
Kalshi85¢
Spread7¢
+2.6% fee-adjusted edge
Poly
Kalshi
0%25%50%75%100%
Poly: 91¢
Kalshi: 85¢