vol=$473,290, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
σ=0.59%/day, AC=-0.20, 17 points
This contract has moderate-to-high resolution risk due to complex coalition rules that require judgment calls about which party represents a coalition, potential disputes over official Russian government reporting credibility, and reliance on 'consensus of credible reporting' that could conflict with official results. The tiebreaker rules (votes then alphabetical order) provide clarity, but geopolitical factors and potential electoral irregularities in Russian elections create uncertainty about what constitutes definitive, uncontested results.
Platform default: polymarket
167d to resolution, volume stable
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET...