Does any credible intelligence or medical reporting suggest a meaningful near-term change in Putin's health or grip on power that the market price doesn't already reflect?

If a coup or health event occurs but Russia's information environment prevents a clear 'consensus of credible reporting,' how confident are you that Polymarket resolvers will call 'Yes' rather than delay or contest resolution?

If a coup or health event occurs but Russia's information environment prevents a clear 'consensus of credible reporting,' how confident are you that Polymarket resolvers will call 'Yes' rather than delay or contest resolution?

Are you holding correlated geopolitical exposure elsewhere that would make a position here a concentration risk rather than a hedge?

Markets

Polymarketgeopolitical

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

12%No 89¢

Calibrated↓ 3%

Trade →

ResolvesDec 31, 2026230d 22h

Price History

Structural Analysis

AI-generated

This is a classic political longshot on Polymarket, and research shows longshots are systematically overpriced — retail traders overweight dramatic but unlikely scenarios (regime change, assassination, coup) because they're vivid and emotionally compelling, not because they're likely. Le (2026) also shows that long-dated political markets compress toward 50%, meaning the true probability implied by any given price here is likely higher than it looks — but for a 'No' favorite trading well below 50%, that correction cuts against 'Yes' buyers, making the longshot even more overpriced than it appears.

ResolutionThe resolution criteria include detention or being 'effectively removed from fulfilling duties' — which means a health crisis, a palace coup where Putin disappears from public view, or a Prigozhin-style standoff could trigger ambiguous resolution attempts even if Putin technically remains president on paper. The reliance on 'consensus of credible reporting' when official Russian sources are weaponized propaganda machines means resolvers could disagree on whether a given event qualifies, creating real dispute risk on a 'Yes' resolution.

CalibrationLe (2026) finds political markets on Polymarket have an outcome-correctness rate of only 67% — the worst of the major platforms — meaning Polymarket political prices are measurably less accurate than Kalshi or PredictIt, and the crowd wisdom here carries more noise than usual. For a long-horizon political market, the calibration research shows prices systematically compress toward 50%, so a market priced well below 50% is likely even more accurate (closer to true probability) than it looks — which is bad news for 'Yes' buyers counting on the price being 'too low.'

RisksThis market has meaningful manipulation vulnerability: $4M in total volume is thin enough that a coordinated position ahead of a geopolitical shock (real or fabricated) could move prices significantly, and the no-news volatility flag (σ≈6%/day) confirms the price already swings sharply on rumors. Correlated exposure risk is also non-obvious — anyone holding this 'Yes' alongside other Russia-adjacent or geopolitical instability markets (energy, NATO, Ukraine) could find their entire book moves together in a crisis, compressing the hedging value.

Questions worth asking

Does any credible intelligence or medical reporting suggest a meaningful near-term change in Putin's health or grip on power that the market price doesn't already reflect?
If a coup or health event occurs but Russia's information environment prevents a clear 'consensus of credible reporting,' how confident are you that Polymarket resolvers will call 'Yes' rather than delay or contest resolution?
Are you holding correlated geopolitical exposure elsewhere that would make a position here a concentration risk rather than a hedge?

Risk Profile

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$4,270,274, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=3.84%/day, AC=-0.04, 31 points

High resolution risk due to reliance on Russian government announcements as primary source in a context where official narratives may be disputed or falsified, combined with ambiguous criteria like 'effectively removed' and 'permanently prevented' that could trigger disputes over whether Putin's temporary incapacity qualifies, plus heavy dependence on 'consensus of credible reporting' as fallback—a subjective standard prone to disagreement about which sources are credible.

Platform default: polymarket

232d to resolution, volume stable

unclear_resolution

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will im...

Polymarket

12¢

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Poly

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 12¢

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Questions worth asking

Calibration Edge

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Resolution Criteria