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Will the Democratic Party win the CA-44 House seat? — Live odds on Polymarket | Field Estimate

Polymarketother

Will the Democratic Party win the CA-44 House seat?

94%No 6¢

ResolvesNov 3, 2026143d 20h

⇄Cross-Platform

5\u00A2 gap · 4¢ after fees

⇄

Also trades on Kalshi (2 outcomes)

Price History

⚡

+3.8%fee-adjusted edge

Not financial advice. Fees may vary. Verify current prices before trading.

Risk Profile

40

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

60

Low volume — wider spreads, slippage possible

28

Price strongly directional — lower volatility expected

40

Exchange-standard resolution criteria

30

Standard manipulation risk for this market depth

30

Resolves in ~144d — longer horizon, lower time pressure

Order Book

Top Holders

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Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-44 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-list...

5¢ raw spread

Consensus Landscape

Poly

Kalshi

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 94¢

Kalshi: 99¢

Field Estimate provides research tools and market data aggregation. This is not financial advice. Prediction market contracts carry risk of loss. Past calibration data does not guarantee future accuracy.