Polymarketgeopolitical

Next leader out of power before 2027?

25 outcomes

99%Orbán - Hungary PM

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ResolvesDec 31, 2026230d 21h

RiskModerate

Price History

Risk Profile

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

Moderate volume — adequate liquidity for most positions

Price strongly directional — lower volatility expected

Exchange-standard resolution criteria

Standard manipulation risk for this market depth

Resolves in ~231d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk

Long-dated

Order Book

Top Holders

Related Contracts

Anti-correlatedPolymarket28¢

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

These are logical complements. If Orbán is the next PM of Hungary, he cannot be 'the next leader out before 2027' (meaning he would be leading). The phrasing indicates opposite outcomes.

All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolut...

Polymarket

99¢

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Poly

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 99¢