MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
Structural Analysis
AI-generatedThis is a multi-outcome political market resolving imminently — and Polymarket political markets systematically underprice favorites, meaning the actual winner's shares are likely trading cheaper than their true probability warrants. With six candidates splitting the probability space, the crowd tends to compress all outcomes toward equal shares rather than accurately weighting the structural frontrunner — so the leading candidate is almost certainly underpriced relative to reality. Toroczkai specifically is an opposition longshot, which means his shares face the opposite pressure: retail traders overweight colorful, high-profile opposition figures, making longshots like him systematically overpriced.
ResolutionThe resolution criteria require formal appointment as PM — not just winning the most seats — which creates a gap if coalition negotiations delay the appointment past election day, potentially keeping this unresolved for weeks or months after votes are counted. The December 31 deadline backstop matters: if no PM is formally confirmed by then (think prolonged coalition deadlock), this resolves 'Other' regardless of who leads negotiations, which is a tail risk most traders aren't pricing into any of the six outcomes.
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Low Risk5-dimension assessment
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vol=$10,824,482, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
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σ=0.00%/day, AC=0.00, 31 points
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This contract has low resolution risk due to clear, objective criteria: formal appointment as PM is a verifiable administrative fact documented by the Hungarian government. The explicit exclusion of interim/caretaker PMs and the defined deadline (December 31, 2026) eliminate most ambiguity. The primary reliance on official government sources provides a concrete oracle, though minor risk exists if constitutional procedures become contested or if succession processes are unusually prolonged.
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Platform default: polymarket
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0d to resolution, volume stable
Order Book
Top Holders
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is next officially appointed and confirmed as Prime Minister of Hungary following the 2026 parliamentary election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally e...
Poly
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Poly: 72¢