Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?

vol=$3,754,782, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=0.00%/day, AC=0.00, 31 points

The contract relies on distinguishing 'official ceasefire agreements' from informal understandings and temporary pauses, which requires interpretation of what constitutes 'official' and 'mutually agreed.' While the resolution criteria provide helpful exclusions (humanitarian pauses, backchannel communication), edge cases—such as ambiguously-worded statements, de facto ceasefires without explicit announcement, or disagreements over whether a partial agreement counts—could trigger disputes. The fallback to 'overwhelming consensus of credible reporting' adds subjectivity when government statements are unclear.

Platform default: polymarket

0d to resolution, volume stable