Browse Markets Blog Pricing

Will the Democratic Party win the HI-02 House seat? — Live odds on Polymarket | Field Estimate

Polymarketother

HI-02 House Election Winner

2 outcomes

94%Democratic Party

ResolvesNov 3, 2026143d 22h

⇄

Also trades on Kalshi (2 outcomes)

Price History

Risk Profile

40

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

60

Low volume — wider spreads, slippage possible

27

Price strongly directional — lower volatility expected

40

Exchange-standard resolution criteria

30

Standard manipulation risk for this market depth

30

Resolves in ~144d — longer horizon, lower time pressure

Order Book

Top Holders

Related Contracts

CorrelatedPolymarket95¢

Will the Democratic Party win the HI-01 House seat?

CorrelatedKalshi97¢

Which party will win the House race for HI-02?

All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-list...

Cross-Platform: Democratic Party

Kalshi97¢

Polymarket94¢

Spread3¢

+1.3% fee-adjusted edge

Consensus Landscape

Poly

Kalshi

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 94¢

Kalshi: 97¢

Field Estimate provides research tools and market data aggregation. This is not financial advice. Prediction market contracts carry risk of loss. Past calibration data does not guarantee future accuracy.