Polymarketother

Brazil Presidential Election

15 outcomes

46%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

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ResolvesOct 4, 2026142d 22h

RiskModerate

Also trades on PredictIt (3 outcomes)

Price History

Polymarket vs PredictIt

Raw gap29¢

Fee-adjusted edge22¢

Positive EV for 6h (1 snapshots)

Risk Profile

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$5,185,112, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=3.35%/day, AC=-0.31, 31 points

This contract has low resolution risk due to a clear binary outcome (winner of a scheduled election) and explicit reliance on Brazil's official TSE results as the authoritative source. The main minor risk factors are the potential for electoral disputes in Brazil and the June 30, 2027 deadline for resolution, but the well-established institutional framework for announcing results mitigates these concerns.

Platform default: polymarket

144d to resolution, volume stable

Order Book

Top Holders

Related Contracts

CorrelatedPredictit68¢

Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Luiz Inácio Lula

Both contracts ask the same substantive question about whether Lula will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, just on different platforms.

Anti-correlatedPolymarket15¢

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

If Lula wins the general election, he cannot finish in second place in the first round. These outcomes are mutually exclusive.

Anti-correlatedPolymarket0¢

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?

If Lula wins the 2026 election, he cannot be the next leader out before 2027. Winning the election contradicts being eliminated before 2027.

All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market...

Consensus Landscape

Poly

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Poly: 46¢