Markets
Risk Profile Consensus Landscape
Kalshigeopolitical
Who will be the next new Prime Minister of Israel?
12 outcomes37%Naftali Bennett
Price History
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Raw gap21¢
Fee-adjusted edge17¢
54
Elevated Risk5-dimension assessment
58
vol=$19,037, spread=0.0¢, OI=5890
100
σ=14.20%/day, AC=-0.39, 30 points
15
This contract has low resolution risk due to clear, objective criteria: it resolves based on who formally assumes the office of Prime Minister, with explicit guidance that acting/interim appointments count. The resolution sources are well-defined (official government announcements with NYT as backup), and the identity of Israel's Prime Minister is a matter of public record with no historical ambiguity in how the position is formally transferred.
35
Platform default: kalshi
60
6856d to resolution, volume unknown
high_volatilityno_news_volatilitypersistent_cross_platform_divergence
Order Book
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Kalshi
If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Naftali Bennett, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position ...
Cross-Platform: Naftali Bennett
Kalshi37¢
PredictIt31¢
Spread5¢
-3.4% fee-adjusted edge
Kalshi
PI
0%25%50%75%100%
Kalshi: 37¢
PI: 31¢