MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
44
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
60
Low volume — wider spreads, slippage possible
49
Moderate price certainty — some volatility expected
40
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
30
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
20
Resolves in ~509d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk
Long-dated
Order Book
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Kalshi
If the House member sworn in for CA-40 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi
0%25%50%75%100%
Kalshi: 76¢