MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
39
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
60
Low volume — wider spreads, slippage possible
27
Price strongly directional — lower volatility expected
40
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
30
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
20
Resolves in ~376d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk
Long-dated
Order Book
All Outcomes
Cross-Platform: Before May 1, 2027
Kalshi94¢
Kalshi94¢
Kalshi94¢
Kalshi93¢
Kalshi93¢
Kalshi93¢
Kalshi5¢
Spread89¢
+87.5% fee-adjusted edge
Kalshi
0%25%50%75%100%
Kalshi: 5¢
Resolution Criteria
Source: Kalshi
If SpaceX confirms an IPO before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An IPO is confirmed if 1) the SEC declares the company's Form S-1 effective OR 2) the IPO is priced OR 3) a securities exchange has assigned a ticker to it. As long as any of those events occur, the market will immediate...