MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
Polymarket vs Kalshi
Raw gap14¢
Fee-adjusted edge9¢
19
Low Risk5-dimension assessment
10
vol=$1,770,919, spread=0.0¢, OI=858155
10
σ=0.00%/day, AC=0.00, 31 points
15
The resolution criteria is highly objective and verifiable—it depends solely on whether Graham Platner wins the Democratic Party's official nomination for Maine's 2026 Senate seat, which will be definitively determined by party nomination procedures and publicly announced results. The only minor risk factor is potential ambiguity about what constitutes "winning the nomination" if an unusual primary process occurs, but standard nomination outcomes are clear-cut and verifiable through official sources.
35
Platform default: kalshi
40
145d to resolution, volume stable
Order Book
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Kalshi
If Graham Platner wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Class II Maine Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Cross-Platform: Graham Platner
Polymarket99¢
PredictIt96¢
Kalshi86¢
Spread14¢
+9.8% fee-adjusted edge
Poly
Kalshi
PI
0%25%50%75%100%
Poly: 99¢
Kalshi: 86¢
PI: 96¢