Which party will win the 2026 election for governor of Alabama?

ResolutionPredictIt resolves on certified election results, not projections or AP calls, which creates a timing trap: a race called on election night can take weeks to certify, leaving capital locked. In a blowout race like this, that's an opportunity cost trap more than a resolution risk — but cross-exchange arbitrage windows documented between identical contracts peak in the final stretch before resolution, so patient traders can sometimes find better fills elsewhere.

CalibrationResearch on political markets shows that high-probability contracts (favorites) are persistently underpriced — the market compresses toward 50% at long horizons, meaning a long-dated contract on a near-certain outcome is systematically cheap relative to its true probability. For a contract like this where the Republican win is structurally near-certain, the mispricing isn't about direction — it's about whether the return on locked capital justifies the position given PredictIt's fees and the long wait until resolution.