Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

vol=$1,358,416, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=4.83%/day, AC=-0.26, 31 points

The contract requires distinguishing between a 'military offensive intended to establish control' versus other military actions, which involves subjective interpretation of intent and scope. Additionally, the reliance on 'consensus of credible reporting' rather than an official government declaration or specific triggering event creates potential for disputes over what constitutes sufficient evidence of an invasion, particularly if actions are ambiguous or escalate gradually.

Platform default: polymarket

232d to resolution, volume stable