MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
Calibration Edge
Cost$78.50
Expected Value+$11.88
ROI+15.1%
Kelly %55.3%
Over 100 similar trades: ~90 wins (+$19.35) and ~10 losses (-$7.85)
54
Elevated Risk5-dimension assessment
10
vol=$1,943,774, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
96
σ=9.45%/day, AC=-0.22, 31 points
65
The contract contains moderately-to-high resolution risk due to ambiguous interpretative criteria: 'military offensive intended to establish control' requires judgment on intent and scope (e.g., does a limited strike or covert operation qualify?), and 'consensus of credible sources' is vague with no designated oracle or appeal mechanism, leaving room for disputed interpretations of geopolitical events that may receive conflicting coverage across media outlets.
55
Platform default: polymarket
60
232d to resolution, volume rising
high_volatilityunclear_resolutionno_news_volatility
Order Book
Top Holders
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by C...
Poly
0%25%50%75%100%
Poly: 22¢