Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

CalibrationResearch on political longshots shows the market almost certainly underprices the true probability here — traders systematically push unlikely political events too close to zero due to cognitive bias, not real edge. However, Burgi et al. (2025) found that contracts priced well below 50% lose over 60% of capital on average, so even if the calibration bias exists, the expected-value math for Yes buyers is brutal unless the true probability is substantially higher than market price.

RisksThe 'no_news_volatility' flag means this market is already moving sharply without clear news catalysts — it's vulnerable to manipulation or large trades distorting price on thin liquidity, especially given that Polymarket's political contracts show only 67% outcome-correctness (Clinton & Huang 2025), the lowest of major platforms. Correlated exposure exists if you're already holding Iranian regime-change or geopolitical instability contracts, since a single catalyst event would move all of them simultaneously and in size.