Polymarketgeopolitical

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

18 outcomes

39%Benjamin Netanyahu

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ResolvesDec 31, 2026194d 17h

RiskModerate

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Risk Profile

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$1,649,617, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=5.62%/day, AC=-0.01, 31 points

The contract has clear binary resolution criteria based on an objectively verifiable fact—who is formally sworn in as Prime Minister after the 2026 election. The primary oracle source (official Israeli government records) is highly authoritative and publicly documented. However, minor risks exist around early election timing, interim PM distinctions, and potential deadlines for government formation that could theoretically create edge cases by December 31, 2027.

Platform default: polymarket

196d to resolution, volume rising

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Related Contracts

Anti-correlatedPolymarket0¢

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?

Contract A asks if Netanyahu will be the next leader to leave office before 2027, while B asks if he will be the next Prime Minister. These are logical opposites - he cannot both leave office and become/remain PM.

All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately ...

Polymarket

39¢

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Poly

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Poly: 39¢