Is the current price sitting above or below 50%, and does that align with the current Fed dot plot and futures strip, which represent the most informed macro consensus available?

Given the high daily volatility and thin liquidity flagged in the risk profile, is the spread and available depth sufficient to exit at a reasonable price if the macro narrative shifts before December?

Given the high daily volatility and thin liquidity flagged in the risk profile, is the spread and available depth sufficient to exit at a reasonable price if the macro narrative shifts before December?

Are you already holding correlated positions in other FOMC-linked markets, and have you netted your total Fed rate exposure across all of them before sizing this trade?

Markets

Polymarketeconomics

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

15 outcomes

39%3.75%

Trade →

ResolvesDec 9, 2026172d 20h

RiskModerate

Price History

Structural Analysis

AI-generated

This is a long-dated macro market, and Le (2026) shows that all domains compress prices toward 50% at long horizons — meaning the market systematically underprices both high-probability and low-probability outcomes the further out you go. A contract trading well above or below 50% here is likely closer to its true probability than the market price reflects, and that gap is structural, not random. The finance domain shows calibration corrections of roughly 20-40%, so if this contract sits as a clear favorite or longshot, the true odds are probably more extreme than what's quoted.

ResolutionResolution happens specifically after the December FOMC *statement* is issued — not the meeting date itself — so any position held through announcement bears statement-day volatility risk even if the rate path seems obvious by then. The rounding rule (away from zero at midpoints) is edge-neutral here since the Fed moves in clean 25bp increments, but if an emergency inter-meeting cut or hike lands the rate at an unusual level, the rounding mechanic becomes the entire resolution question and most traders won't have modeled it.

Live Economic Dataas of 2026-06-17

Daily Fed Funds

3.63%0.0%

2Y Treasury Yield

4.05%-0.5%

10Y Treasury Yield

4.43%-0.9%

10Y-2Y Yield Spread

0.29%-23.7%

US Crude Oil Stocks

418.2Kthousand barrels-1.9%

US Crude Oil Production

13.8Kthousand b/d+0.1%

Correlation with Daily Fed Funds: r = -0.01(negligible, n=89)

FREDEIA

Risk Profile

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$498,802, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

100

σ=13.59%/day, AC=-0.27, 31 points

This contract has very low resolution risk due to objective, verifiable source material. The Federal Reserve publishes official FOMC decisions with precise target federal funds rate ranges, and the resolution criteria specify a clear rounding rule (nearest 25 basis points, away from zero). The primary resolution source is the Fed's official website, which is authoritative and publicly accessible, eliminating interpretive disputes.

Platform default: polymarket

234d to resolution, volume stable

high_volatilityno_news_volatility

Order Book

Top Holders

All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal fu...

Polymarket

39¢

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Poly

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 39¢

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

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