US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

vol=$1,591,083, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=5.54%/day, AC=0.51, 10 points

The contract has moderate-to-high resolution risk due to several interpretive challenges: determining what constitutes a 'permanent' peace deal versus temporary agreements requires judgment (the April 2026 ceasefire example helps but edge cases may arise), reliance on 'clear public confirmation' language is subjective, and the fallback to 'consensus of credible reporting' introduces oracle discretion when official sources conflict or remain ambiguous. However, the existence of formal written agreements as objective triggers and specific exclusion criteria mitigate some ambiguity.

Platform default: polymarket

232d to resolution, volume rising