vol=$715,529, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
σ=0.00%/day, AC=0.00, 31 points
The contract has moderate resolution risk due to several interpretation challenges: determining whether indirect meetings through mediators qualify (requires subjective judgment on 'authorization'), distinguishing deliberate diplomacy from chance encounters, and the vague standard of 'publicly acknowledged' or 'consensus of credible media.' While the in-person requirement and deadline are clear, disputes could arise over whether marginal diplomatic contacts meet the criteria, and reliance on media consensus rather than official government statements creates potential ambiguity.
Platform default: polymarket
0d to resolution, volume stable
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries ...
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