Trump out as President before 2027?

CalibrationResearch on Polymarket political markets shows prices tend to underprice favorites and overprice longshots — a contract trading at a deep longshot price likely overstates the true probability even further than face value suggests. Polymarket also has the lowest outcome-correctness rate among major platforms (67% vs. 93% on PredictIt), meaning the crowd here is measurably less accurate on political questions, and longshot political contracts are exactly where that gap is widest.

RisksThe related 'next leader out before 2027' contract on the same platform creates a correlated liquidity trap: if a news shock hits, both markets move simultaneously, meaning your hedge or exit in one contract competes with the same players trying to exit the other. Thin liquidity (the spread data suggests market-making is concentrated) means a single large order can temporarily move the price far from fair value, creating manipulation vulnerability in either direction during high-news moments.