MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
44
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
35
Moderate volume — adequate liquidity for most positions
79
Price near 50% — maximum uncertainty, expect swings
40
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
30
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
30
Resolves in ~47d — longer horizon, lower time pressure
Order Book
Top Holders
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918. This market will resolve to "Y...
Poly
0%25%50%75%100%
Poly: 51¢