Will the Democratic Party win the GA-12 House seat? — Live odds on Polymarket | Field Estimate

Polymarketgeopolitical

Will the Democratic Party win the GA-12 House seat?

20%No 81¢

Calibrated↓ 8%

ResolvesNov 3, 2026143d 18h

◉Calibration Edge

-12pp overpriced

⇄Cross-Platform

14\u00A2 gap · 12¢ after fees

Also trades on Kalshi (2 outcomes)

Price History

Calibration Edge

Le 2026

Market

81 ¢

Calibrated

92 ¢

+11.6pp edge

Position size

Cost$80.50

Expected Value+$11.58

ROI+14.4%

Kelly %59.4%

Over 100 similar trades: ~92 wins (+$17.94) and ~8 losses (-$6.44)

Slope 1.73 · geopolitical · 1mo+Historical calibration — not investment advice

⚡

+12.4%fee-adjusted edge

Not financial advice. Fees may vary. Verify current prices before trading.

Risk Profile

44

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

60

Low volume — wider spreads, slippage possible

43

Moderate price certainty — some volatility expected

40

Exchange-standard resolution criteria

30

Standard manipulation risk for this market depth

30

Resolves in ~144d — longer horizon, lower time pressure

Order Book

Top Holders

Related Contracts

CorrelatedPolymarket7¢

Will the Democratic Party win the GA-08 House seat?

CorrelatedPolymarket96¢

Will the Democratic Party win the GA-04 House seat?

CorrelatedKalshi6¢

Which party will win the House race for GA-12?

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-list...

14¢ raw spread

Consensus Landscape

Poly

Kalshi

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 20¢

Kalshi: 6¢