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Will the Republican Party win the PA-16 House seat? — Live odds on Polymarket | Field Estimate

Polymarketother

PA-16 House Election Winner

2 outcomes

81%Republican Party

ResolvesNov 3, 2026144d 1h

⇄

Also trades on Kalshi (2 outcomes)

Price History

Risk Profile

44

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

60

Low volume — wider spreads, slippage possible

43

Moderate price certainty — some volatility expected

40

Exchange-standard resolution criteria

30

Standard manipulation risk for this market depth

30

Resolves in ~144d — longer horizon, lower time pressure

Order Book

Top Holders

Related Contracts

CorrelatedPolymarket7¢

Will the Republican Party win the CA-16 House seat?

CorrelatedPolymarket5¢

Will the Republican Party win the PA-02 House seat?

CorrelatedKalshi88¢

Which party will win the House race for PA-16?

All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-list...

Cross-Platform: Republican Party

Kalshi88¢

Polymarket81¢

Spread7¢

+5.4% fee-adjusted edge

Consensus Landscape

Poly

Kalshi

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 81¢

Kalshi: 88¢

Field Estimate provides research tools and market data aggregation. This is not financial advice. Prediction market contracts carry risk of loss. Past calibration data does not guarantee future accuracy.