Markets
Risk Profile Consensus Landscape
Polymarketgeopolitical
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
6 outcomes23%August 15
Price History
40
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
35
Moderate volume — adequate liquidity for most positions
48
Moderate price certainty — some volatility expected
40
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
30
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
50
Resolves in ~26d — moderate horizon
Order Book
Top Holders
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a memorandum of understanding ending the immediate conflict and establishing a 60-day framework for negotiating a final agreement. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Iranian government, or an authorized representative of the Iranian gover...
Poly
0%25%50%75%100%
Poly: 23¢