vol=$1,911,437, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
σ=5.41%/day, AC=-0.29, 31 points
The contract has moderate-to-high resolution risk due to reliance on either official U.S. government announcements (which may be classified or strategically withheld) or a fallback to 'widespread consensus of credible reporting' (inherently subjective). The definition of 'possession' is fairly clear, but determining whether a 'consensus' exists among credible sources lacks objective criteria and could spark disputes if evidence is contradictory, partial, or heavily subject to interpretation.
Platform default: polymarket
169d to resolution, volume stable
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that...