vol=$2,017,420, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
σ=9.78%/day, AC=-0.12, 31 points
This contract has low resolution risk as it hinges on an objectively verifiable, high-profile political event (UK Prime Minister status change) with clear official sources and well-established public documentation. The main minor risk factor is the inclusion of an announcement-trigger clause that could theoretically create ambiguity about timing if a resignation is announced but delayed, though credible UK government records and media consensus would likely resolve this clearly.
Platform default: polymarket
232d to resolution, volume rising
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Keir Starmer ceases to be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for any period of time between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Keir Starmer's resignation/removal before this...