Polymarketgeopolitical

Iran military action against ___ by April 30?

25 outcomes

100%Iraq

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ResolvesApr 30, 2026Resolved

RiskModerate

Price History

Risk Profile

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$2,108,422, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=0.00%/day, AC=0.00, 31 points

The contract has moderate-to-high resolution risk due to reliance on 'consensus of credible reporting' for verifying strike origin and attribution, potential ambiguity around what constitutes 'intercepted' versus 'impacted' weapons, and the strict 3-day confirmation deadline which could force early resolution before facts are fully established. Attribution of attacks to Iranian forces versus proxies is particularly prone to dispute and requires verified claims or origin confirmation.

Platform default: polymarket

0d to resolution, volume stable

unclear_resolution

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Resolution Criteria

Source: Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of thi...

Polymarket

100¢

KalshiN/A PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Poly

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 100¢

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