MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
50
Elevated Risk5-dimension assessment
10
vol=$2,371,991, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
69
σ=7.38%/day, AC=0.03, 31 points
75
This contract faces high resolution risk due to multiple subjective criteria including 'de facto leader' status, vague conditions like 'prevented from acting,' and reliance on 'consensus of credible reporting' without a specified oracle. The distinction between de facto and de jure power in Iran is particularly ambiguous, and determining whether Mojtaba Khamenei (not currently the Supreme Leader) has lost leadership status would likely generate significant interpretive disputes.
55
Platform default: polymarket
60
232d to resolution, volume rising
high_volatilityunclear_resolutionno_news_volatility
Order Book
Top Holders
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto le...
Poly
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Poly: 36¢