MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
49
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
10
vol=$2,971,259, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
62
σ=6.45%/day, AC=-0.04, 31 points
75
High resolution risk due to subjective criteria including ambiguous definitions of "de facto leader," "prevented from acting," and reliance on "consensus of credible reporting" as the primary oracle. The distinction between de jure and de facto authority in Iran's complex political system creates significant interpretive challenges that could lead to disputes over whether the threshold for resolution has been met.
55
Platform default: polymarket
60
196d to resolution, volume stable
high_volatilityunclear_resolutionno_news_volatility
Order Book
Top Holders
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto le...
Poly
0%25%50%75%100%
Poly: 16¢