Iran leader end of 2026?

vol=$2,808,099, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a

σ=2.75%/day, AC=-0.21, 31 points

The contract relies on subjective assessment of 'de facto' governing authority rather than formal position, requiring judgment about who 'demonstrably exercises primary governing control' in a complex, opaque political system. The resolution criteria's emphasis on 'consensus of credible reporting' introduces significant interpretation risk, as geopolitical disputes, contested succession scenarios, or ambiguous power-sharing arrangements in Iran could lead to conflicting assessments of effective authority by different credible sources.

Platform default: polymarket

196d to resolution, volume stable