MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
Polymarket vs PredictIt
Raw gap4¢
Fee-adjusted edge-5¢
35
Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
10
vol=$1,594,213, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
58
σ=5.96%/day, AC=-0.09, 31 points
25
California gubernatorial elections have clear, objective outcomes with well-established certification processes. The contract has multiple credible news sources (AP, Fox, NBC) as primary resolution triggers and a fallback to official state certification, reducing ambiguity. The main minor risk is the July 31, 2027 deadline for confirmation—election results are typically certified well before this, but unforeseen legal challenges could theoretically create a narrow window of ambiguity.
55
Platform default: polymarket
40
138d to resolution, volume rising
Order Book
Top Holders
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Polymarket
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the ...
Cross-Platform: Xavier Becerra
PredictIt91¢
Polymarket89¢
Spread2¢
-5.2% fee-adjusted edge
Poly
PI
0%25%50%75%100%
Poly: 89¢
PI: 91¢