vol=$2,238,227, spread=0.0¢, OI=n/a
σ=24.06%/day, AC=-0.46, 31 points
The contract has mostly objective, verifiable criteria (stock prices, bankruptcies, acquisitions, rental prices) tied to clear, auditable data sources. Primary risk comes from the 90-day window interpretation and potential edge cases around what constitutes "official" bankruptcy/acquisition declarations, but the core metrics are binary and measurable against established exchanges and indices.
Platform default: polymarket
232d to resolution, volume stable
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of ...