MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
Structural Analysis
AI-generatedThis is a long-dated political market, and Le (2026) shows that all domains compress toward 50% at long horizons — meaning the crowd systematically underprices both extremes and overstates uncertainty. For a low-probability political event like this, that horizon bias combines with the politics domain's known tendency to underprice high-confidence outcomes, creating a market where the 'No' side may be structurally undervalued relative to true probability. The liquidity score of 10/100 with near-zero spread signals a thin, illiquid book where a few large orders can move prices dramatically — and on Kalshi specifically, large political trades amplify underconfidence even further.
ResolutionThe resolution criteria require an actual 'purchase' — a formal financial transaction or treaty — not a letter of intent, executive order, or diplomatic agreement. Any scenario where the U.S. gains operational control, long-term lease rights, or expanded military presence without a literal sale would likely resolve No, catching traders who conflate 'acquiring influence' with 'buying territory.' The January 20, 2029 hard cutoff means a deal announced but not legally finalized before that date also resolves No — treaty ratification timelines can easily outrun inauguration deadlines.
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Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment
10
vol=$3,288,636, spread=0.0¢, OI=364822
67
σ=5.89%/day, AC=-0.37, 31 points
15
This contract has low resolution risk as it involves a binary, objectively verifiable outcome: either the US purchases at least part of Greenland from Denmark or it does not. Official government announcements, treaty documentation, or legal transfer records would provide clear evidence, and the deadline (January 20, 2029) is unambiguous. The only minor consideration is defining what constitutes a 'purchase' versus other agreements, but this is a standard legal distinction with clear precedent.
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Platform default: kalshi
60
983d to resolution, volume rising
high_volatilityno_news_volatility
Order Book
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Kalshi
If the United States purchases at least part of Greenland from Denmark before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi
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Kalshi: 28¢