vol=$2,561,478, spread=0.0¢, OI=491458
σ=2.56%/day, AC=-0.26, 31 points
The contract has relatively clear binary criteria—US must acquire formal governance/jurisdiction over Greenland territory, excluding mere leasing—which is verifiable through official announcements and legal documentation. However, moderate risk exists around potential ambiguity in what constitutes 'formal governance' (e.g., could a treaty-based arrangement or autonomous zone under US sovereignty be disputed?), and the requirement for explicit joint announcement creates a potential gap if acquisition occurs without mutual announcement.
Platform default: kalshi
984d to resolution, volume stable
If the United States acquires any part of Greenland before Jan 21, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement by the United States and the entity that controls any part of Greenland that it will happen is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. any part of Greenland must come under f...