Moderate volume — adequate liquidity for most positions
Price strongly directional — lower volatility expected
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
Resolves in ~232d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk
If any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, the market resolves to Yes.
Taking existing offers on low-priced Kalshi contracts has historically yielded -60% avg returns. Consider placing instead of taking existing offers.
Bürgi, Deng & Whelan (2025) — CESifo Working Paper 12122