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Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027? — Live odds on Kalshi | Field Estimate

Kalshiother

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?

7%No 94¢

ResolvesJan 1, 2027232d 2h45.6K vol1\u00A2 spread

⇄Cross-Platform

2\u00A2 gap · 1¢ after fees

⇄

Also trades on Polymarket (1 outcome)

Price History

⚡

+0.8%fee-adjusted edge

Persisted for 96h (16 snapshots)

Not financial advice. Fees may vary. Verify current prices before trading.

Polymarket vs Kalshi

Raw gap2¢

Fee-adjusted edge1¢

Positive EV for 96h (16 snapshots)

Risk Profile

32

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

35

Moderate volume — adequate liquidity for most positions

28

Price strongly directional — lower volatility expected

40

Exchange-standard resolution criteria

30

Standard manipulation risk for this market depth

20

Resolves in ~232d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk

Long-dated

Order Book

Related Contracts

CorrelatedPolymarket9¢

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?

Resolution Criteria

Source: Kalshi

If any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, the market resolves to Yes.

Consensus Landscape

Poly

Kalshi

0%25%50%75%100%

Poly: 9¢

Kalshi: 7¢

Taking existing offers on low-priced Kalshi contracts has historically yielded -60% avg returns. Consider placing instead of taking existing offers.

Bürgi, Deng & Whelan (2025) — CESifo Working Paper 12122

Field Estimate provides research tools and market data aggregation. This is not financial advice. Prediction market contracts carry risk of loss. Past calibration data does not guarantee future accuracy.