Kalshiother

Will Bitcoin be above $250k by 2027?

5%No 96¢

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ResolvesJan 1, 2027232d 2h208.1K vol1\u00A2 spread

RiskLow

Price History

Risk Profile

Low Risk5-dimension assessment

vol=$496,563, spread=0.0¢, OI=208123

σ=0.00%/day, AC=0.00, 20 points

This contract has very low resolution risk due to objective, verifiable criteria tied to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), a well-established third-party data source with a clearly specified mathematical calculation method (trimmed mean of 60% of values). The price threshold ($250k) and time windows are unambiguous, and the early-expiration trigger provides additional objectivity, though minor risk exists from potential data availability issues or index calculation disputes.

Platform default: kalshi

258d to resolution, volume stable

kalshi_longshot_taker_risk

Order Book

Related Contracts

CorrelatedKalshi8¢

Will Bitcoin be above $200k by 2027?

Resolution Criteria

Source: Kalshi

If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $250000 starting 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The re...

PolymarketN/A Kalshi

5¢

PredictItN/A

Consensus Landscape

Kalshi

0%25%50%75%100%

Kalshi: 5¢

Taking existing offers on low-priced Kalshi contracts has historically yielded -60% avg returns. Consider placing instead of taking existing offers.

Bürgi, Deng & Whelan (2025) — CESifo Working Paper 12122