vol=$496,563, spread=0.0¢, OI=208123
σ=0.00%/day, AC=0.00, 20 points
This contract has very low resolution risk due to objective, verifiable criteria tied to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), a well-established third-party data source with a clearly specified mathematical calculation method (trimmed mean of 60% of values). The price threshold ($250k) and time windows are unambiguous, and the early-expiration trigger provides additional objectivity, though minor risk exists from potential data availability issues or index calculation disputes.
Platform default: kalshi
258d to resolution, volume stable
If the Bitcoin spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index is above $250000 starting 2025-10-18T14:00:00.000Z and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) using a trimmed mean calculation. The re...
Taking existing offers on low-priced Kalshi contracts has historically yielded -60% avg returns. Consider placing instead of taking existing offers.
Bürgi, Deng & Whelan (2025) — CESifo Working Paper 12122