Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026? — Live odds on Kalshi | Field Estimate

Kalshiother

Who will leave the Trump administration in 2026?

34 outcomes

77%Lori Chavez-DeRemer

ResolvesJan 1, 2027189d 19h41.7K vol2\u00A2 spread

Also trades on Polymarket (12 outcomes)

Price History

Risk Profile

36

Moderate Risk5-dimension assessment

35

Moderate volume — adequate liquidity for most positions

48

Moderate price certainty — some volatility expected

40

Exchange-standard resolution criteria

30

Standard manipulation risk for this market depth

20

Resolves in ~190d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk

Long-dated

Order Book

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Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?

All Outcomes

Resolution Criteria

Source: Kalshi

If Lori Chavez-DeRemer leaves as Secretary of Labor before 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Lori Chavez-DeRemer must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all ...

Consensus Landscape

Kalshi

0%25%50%75%100%

Kalshi: 77¢