Which party will win the U.S. House?

CalibrationResearch on political markets shows prices persistently underprice the leading outcome — a contract priced as a moderate favorite likely reflects a true probability meaningfully higher than the displayed price, particularly at this long horizon where compression toward 50% is strongest. The Kalshi-specific finding matters here: unlike Polymarket, large-trade underconfidence on Kalshi is real and documented, so if sophisticated money is piling in on one side, their price still understates true odds rather than correcting them.

RisksThe negative autocorrelation (AC = −0.37) signals mean-reverting price swings, which is a liquidity trap for takers — if you chase a price move, you're likely entering near a local extreme and will watch it snap back. The liquidity score is extremely low, meaning the spread risk and market-impact cost of entering or exiting a meaningful position could easily dwarf any edge you've identified, especially since execution research shows casual traders consistently pay materially worse prices than automated participants.