MarketsRisk Profile Consensus Landscape
Price History
50
Elevated Risk5-dimension assessment
80
Very low or unknown volume — thin market, caution warranted
54
Moderate price certainty — some volatility expected
40
Exchange-standard resolution criteria
30
Standard manipulation risk for this market depth
20
Resolves in ~509d — long horizon, capital lock-up risk
Low liquidityLong-dated
Order Book
All Outcomes
Resolution Criteria
Source: Kalshi
If the House member sworn in for MI-4 for the term beginning in 2027 is a member of the Republican Party, then the market resolves to Yes.
Kalshi
0%25%50%75%100%
Kalshi: 72¢